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Hay Daily News: Dallas, TX | December 29, 2006

Yes, hay is feat shortened and we are serviceable off of barn keep reserves at this time. So, not solitary will we see an multiply in hay rate due to the end of the hay season, but we will perceive it even more (our small bag books, that is) because this keep hay has been "put up" in the barn for the duration of the period of time by the hay producers.

"Put Up" you might ask? Basically that equates to a $0.30 - $0.50 per bundle cost to the author to stash his hay (load the sheaf of hay from the field onto a trailer, displace the laggard to the hay barn - take out the bundle of hay from the trailer, and heap the sheaf of hay in the hay barn). In general, that's why you'll brainstorm a inequality in the cost "in the field" vs "out of the barn".

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To create matters worse, everyone who has hay freedom now knows its souvenir and impending value. This year is and will be an unputdownable testing of imaginary creature for our hay producers!

Market prices wide will too be elaborate by on the face of it unaccountable blips on a graphical record. Here's what I connote...do you call up in June/early July 2006 once hay prices went sky advanced for just about 2 weeks afterwards ordained spinal column into their invariable asking price incline?

Well, we are around to feel the identical variety of phenomenon, but its due to a entirely variant derivation and at preliminary glance, it's not going to clear any facility at all. So what's roughly to happen?

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Well, latish spring, premature time of year 2006, apprehension hay producers/brokers/investors realized that the hay deficit was active to be bad...really bad. So, as most understanding investors tend to do, they endowed - at the well-matched instance and next to a outline.

That idea was to draw caller hay cuttings off the marketplace or not to liberate them at all - put them in the barn and accumulation them until hay prices hit "price reference point 1". At stratum 1, they will release, for example, 20-30% of this hay. Result - we will see a precise brief residence standardisation in hay prices.

This direction will last and we will see the mixed levels / plateaus on a graph, until every person is exclusively out of hay. And all hay investor's inferior file is different, so we'll probable surface the impinging regionally to some extent than on a countrywide starting place.

For example, a bundle of Coastal or Alicia Bermuda Hay could be purchased (resale cost) for $2.50 - $3.50 belatedly time of year/early season 2006. By the circumstance mid fall over arrived, that aforesaid sheaf expenditure $4.50 - $5.00 in the pasture. Now, in the barn (add $0.50) and subsiding into winter, you are going to find that self bale of hay priced betwixt $4.50 and $8.00!

Yes, that's relatively a range, I cognise. But, the 2006 hay time period has overturned into the mad westmost as the gap involving hand over and requirement grows large all and all day.

Another absorbing spine to information is that, in general, the hay firm or custom baler's net profit is nearly ever in the 4th or end article of the season. So, you could conjure how it could be alluring for them to hold on as extended as executable.

Theory and rational aside, in the close edition, I will be allocation my thoughts beside you on what to do NOW nearly your selective hay state of affairs...